Discount The Obvious

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: Given that equities did not close even, my neutral call was bound to be wrong, and the S&P 500 advanced 2.2% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 2%. My long gold and bonds positions both helped with this, and those were exited Friday afternoon. We had yet another gap up on Tuesday, as … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – November 17th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: In hindsight, I should have went long equities, as the S&P 500 appreciated 1.3% this week. The Nasdaq 100 was up 2.9%. But Powell showed just how cautious this market is on Thursday. During his famous "close the f*cking door" speech, the S&P 500 fell by 1% in just over an … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – November 10th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: And what a difference a week makes. Price gapped up above the 200-day moving average on Thursday (black line), and has not looked back. While this is great news for bulls over the intermittent term, I'm not ready to go all-in on longs just yet. Historical gap ups with the S&P … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – November 3rd, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I wrote last week that "I'm neutral equities until price reclaims that 200-day moving average, which ideally happens Monday." Price indeed reclaimed that moving average on Tuesday (blue arrow), and then fell nearly 3% after breaking back below. My equity positions were hedged for … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – October 27th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: This equities call was wrong, and the S&P 500 rolled over during the 2nd half of the week, dropping -2.5% overall. Although I was not exposed to equities, yields kept up their advance, breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. This unfortunately made my bond losses even … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – October 20th, 2023