Discount The Obvious

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: In hindsight, I should have went long equities, as the S&P 500 appreciated 1.3% this week. The Nasdaq 100 was up 2.9%. But Powell showed just how cautious this market is on Thursday. During his famous "close the f*cking door" speech, the S&P 500 fell by 1% in just over an … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – November 10th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: And what a difference a week makes. Price gapped up above the 200-day moving average on Thursday (black line), and has not looked back. While this is great news for bulls over the intermittent term, I'm not ready to go all-in on longs just yet. Historical gap ups with the S&P … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – November 3rd, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I wrote last week that "I'm neutral equities until price reclaims that 200-day moving average, which ideally happens Monday." Price indeed reclaimed that moving average on Tuesday (blue arrow), and then fell nearly 3% after breaking back below. My equity positions were hedged for … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – October 27th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: This equities call was wrong, and the S&P 500 rolled over during the 2nd half of the week, dropping -2.5% overall. Although I was not exposed to equities, yields kept up their advance, breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. This unfortunately made my bond losses even … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – October 20th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: The equities call was correct, but barely. The S&P 500 advanced +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 +0.15%. The real story is my bond holdings (gold as well, I'll discuss their eruption at the end), as yields may have finally topped out. I'm not spiking the football on this, just … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – October 13th, 2023