Discount The Obvious

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I got this very wrong, as all market indices advanced this week. After a hawkish Fed press conference, I was pretty surprised that the market ground up overnight. And then, 5 minutes after the market opened, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%. I feel like this tipped the hand of where … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – July 28th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I got this right with the Nasdaq 100, but both the S&P 500 and Dow advanced. Given that tech already started rolling over, I see no reason for changing my thesis, as the S&P 500's momentum keeps falling while price keeps advancing. I showed the same chart last week, and … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – July 21st, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I was right about the first half of the week, but was clearly wrong about being bearish later this week. My equity shorts that were opened on Wednesday are still underwater. Hopefully I was early on this, and I'll explain in the Market Updates section why I'm comfortable holding … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – July 14th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, and a great 4th for the Americans. Here's a quick recap of last week's plan: That thesis played out this week, as the S&P 500 fell over 1%. And while I'm still bearish through July, I'm expecting a bounce will come early next week. Thus, I'm bullish equities until middle of next week, and bearish later in the week. … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – July 7th, 2023

Hey everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: This was wrong, the market essentially did the opposite, and I hedged my Dow Industrials short on Wednesday. And while I still underperformed, that hedge saved my portfolio from any meaningful losses. Liquidity fell significantly (dark blue line), making the S&P 500's relative … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – June 30th, 2023