Discount The Obvious

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: Before zooming in, let's look at the weekly S&P 500. It went basically nowhere, closing the week down -0.1% after all the volatility you'll see once we zoom in. I have written much of this year about how the S&P 500 is stuck in the same 12 month range. Hopefully this … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – April 21st, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: My equities thesis was once again correct, as we'll review in the portfolio and market updates section next. Unfortunately, I did not participate, as I wrote on Slack that I planned on going long at the lower end of this channel (green box). I'm alright with that miss, as the … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – April 14th, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: The equities call turned out correct, as the graph of the S&P 500 shows below. Unfortunately, I did not open a position because my gold short went the wrong direction, and I did not want to be caught flat-footed with non-farm payrolls coming out on Friday. While the markets … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – April 7th, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I nailed the equities, going long on Tuesday, and rode most of the move up, closing those positions a day early on Thursday. Unfortunately, gold has been more stubborn, and you'll see that my equity longs essentially funded my gold short. Either way, the gap between the … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – March 31st, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: This chart shows how this plan was executed, although my equity shorts were covered sooner than I expected. I wrote just last week that my bearish thesis may not materialize as expected, and I closed my shorts once the 10 year yield started collapsing, fearing it could push up … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – March 24th, 2023