Discount The Obvious

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: I nailed the "bounce" call, yet unfortunately made nothing off of it, as I missed my buying signal Monday morning. We have a newborn that is changing my schedule, and I missed my window. I apologize for that, but hopefully you appreciate last week's accuracy. I was also accurate … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – March 17th, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: That "bounce" happened faster than anticipated, as Monday morning opened with the S&P 500 gapping up over half a percent. The following day, my bearish thesis was realized.The S&P 500 fell 4.8% from Monday's open. Currently I'm neutral equities and short bonds and gold. I … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – March 10th, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: Sure enough, we did see more liquidity enter the market (blue line), shown in the maroon box below. Not surprisingly, equities (yellow line) rose as well. I closed some of my long hedges at the end of Friday, and while I'm still bearish over the intermittent term (4-6 weeks), it's … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – March 3rd, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: The markets fell this week, and my short thesis has come into fruition more. I'm now hedged neutral for the short term, and am still bearish over the intermittent term (4-6 weeks). Portfolio & Market Updates My portfolio rose 17.9% this week, which blew out my comps, but I … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – February 24th, 2023

Hey Everyone, I hope you had a great week, here's a quick recap of last week's plan: The markets fell again this week, but not as much as I anticipated. I'm holding my shorts, and am bearish over the intermittent term (4-6 weeks). However, I'm more neutral over the short term (2-4 days), as I believe more liquidity will enter the market. Given this, I could hedge my … [Read more...] about Weekly Update – February 17th, 2023